Fifteen percent of Canadians are currently working in occupations projected to decline by the year 2030, while 19 percent are in occupations expected to grow in demand, according to a new report from the Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship.
“The global pandemic and accompanying economic crisis will undoubtedly have an impact on these trends.”
The findings result from the institution’s final forecast report of its Employment in 2030 research project. The Brookfield Institute, housed at Ryerson University, announced the initiative in March 2019. Employment in 2030 aimed to forecast employment skills that will be in demand a decade from now.
Using the “Forecast of Canadian Occupational Growth” tool (a combination of expert insights and machine learning), the latest report explored what Brookfield Institute called “the uneven implications of the forecast” and what they mean for different industries, geographies and demographic groups, highlighting those that may be most vulnerable.
The institute found that jobs in health and science, as well as those requiring a “high degree of service orientation or technical expertise” are projected to increase in employment share by 2030. At the same time, manufacturing and utilities occupations are projected to decrease in employment share.
Overall, the study found that 66 percent of workers in Canada are in occupations projected to remain stable in employment share, while 15 percent currently work in occupations projected to decline with 19 percent expected to grow in demand.
The institute previously predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) would potentially disrupt every industry within the next decade, requiring all companies to have AI-related occupations. Brookfield Institute indicated the trend has the potential to make it “highly competitive” to retain talent.
The latest report found that workers with higher education and incomes, as well as first-generation immigrants, are more likely to be in occupations that are projected to grow. The same can be said for visible minority workers, Brookfield Institute reported, while noting that “certain groups may face more risk.”
Many of the findings of this final report were collected before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the institute said the results “provide a very helpful guide for thinking about long-term employment and skills trends in Canada between now and 2030.”
“The global pandemic and accompanying economic crisis will undoubtedly have an impact on these trends,” said Sean Mullin, executive director of the Brookfield Institute. “Some trends may accelerate, new ones will emerge, others may slow down or stop.”
“But, many of these trends are deeply rooted in economic, social, political, technological, and environmental changes that we believe will continue,” he added. “And the time frame of the forecast – targeting 2030, not 2021 – is designed to focus on the long-term.”
Other reports that came out of the Employment in 2030 initiative forecast strong trends toward technological disruption in the Canadian workforce. Institute experts pointed to potential new professions such as AI ethicists, VR educators, dark web detectives, digital identity protectors, cannabis sommeliers, and VR doctors. Some of these trends, such as virtual medicine and education, are already beginning to emerge amid COVID-19.
In October, the Brookfield Institute also released a proposed model for finding new pathways for employers and workers amid technological disruption.
Image source Brookfield Institute via YouTube
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